In 2013, the "Alternative for Germany" started out as a soft-eurosceptic vehicle for disappointed centre-right voters and politicians. Since then, it has changed beyond all recognition. In a recent contribution for Electoral Studies, Carl Berning and I trace the changing motives and composition of the AfD's electorate using data that span the whole of the 2013-2017 electoral cycle. Our main finding is that anti-immigration sentiment, which had no effect on the AfD vote during the first two years, is now by far the most important predictor.
The full article is ungated until July 5, 2019. After that date, the pre-print (authors' version) is still freely available from my personal website.
Arzheimer, Kai and Carl Berning. “How the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and their voters veered to the radical right, 2013-2017.” Electoral Studies (2019): forthcoming. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2019.04.004